This Weeks Footie Forecasts

Two weeks ago proved to be a horrible big black stain on the copybook, mainly down to the failure of Chelsea to complete the 5 unit treble. The loss of Robben looks to have had a bigger effect than I first anticipated, so they'll be best avoided in the cup this week.

So to the picks:

AIRDRIE Home v Raith @ 1.53 with Paddy Power

This one boils down to a good home side versus a bad away side, or just a bad side, period. Raith are only just beginning to recover from the Claude Anelka fiasco, and are now preparing for life in Division two. They are putting together a team of young Scottish players, giving them the rest of the season to play together in the hope of competing to bounce straight back next season.

That all aside, Raith have only taken 2 points away from home all season, and have only scored 5 in those games. Airdrie are a good enough home side to make this yet another away defeat for raith, making this a prime selection for a combo. I've got them priced at 69% likely for the win, so the price is just about right, if anything showing a little value.

STENHOUSEMUIR Home v East Stirling @ 1.50 with Paddy Power

One too many false dawns for me for East Stirling this season, and their loss to East Fife in midweek involved numerous injury problems to key players(check them out before the game.) The main pointer here is Stenny's 6-0 drubbing of the table proppers at the start of the season. A long time ago granted, but their home form since then has been just as impressive, and looking at their impressive defensive record there(taking account for heavy scoring Gretna) I can't see East Stirling scoring.

AIRDRIE + STENHOUSEMUIR 2 UNIT DOUBLE @ 2.29

DERBY Away v Rotherham @ 2.10 with Bet365

Rotherhams recent improvement(only 3 defeats in the last ten) is a worry here, but they are still so far off safety in the Coca Cola championship that I think Derby's motivation will be a great deal higher here. Its now or never as concerns getting a guaranteed promotion spot, or cementing a playoff place, and these are the games they must win to make sure of those. A good showing in the two games in the Cup v Fulham will give confidence, and 5 away wins on the bounce pushes this over the edge for me.

SUNDERLAND Away v Brighton @ 2.20 with Paddy Power

Pretty much the same type of review as above here. Brighton are not a good home side, and as Sunderland are level with Wigan for the second promotion slot, draws in these games are not really good enough for automatic promotion anymore. Sunderland for me here.

FA CUP DOUBLE

SHEFF UTD + 1.5 Away v Arsenal @ 1.88 with Bet365
CHARLTON Home v Leicester @ 1.57 with Bet365

Arsenal have returned to winning ways recently, and were very impressive v Crystal Palace. However, forget all that for Saturday, as Arsene Wenger prioritises the CL clash with Bayern on Tuesday. With Campbell Cole and Edu already out, and bigger stars expected to be rested, the cobbled together side will struggle to get to grips with a super motivated United. An Arsenal win is still likely, but I doubt they will beat the 1.5 Handicap.

Charlton are getting a great run of luck with the FA Cup draw this year, and having beaten Yeovil and Rochdale already, Leicester might await the same fate here. A full strength side expected, league business all taken care of and the prospects of an extended cup run should see some sort of home win here. I've got Charlton up at over 67% for the win, so that price looks very good for a little value.

1 Unit double @ 2.95

LINCOLN Home v Cambridge 1.53 with Stan James
SHREWSBURY Home v Kidderminster 1.91 with Stan James

Cambridge and Kidderminster are the two worst away sides in the league, and neither is in very good form at the moment. Lincoln have only conceded once at home in their last five, and should have few problems following up here. Shrewsbury are in slight trouble in the league, but have only conceded twice in their last five at home, and their current form should pull them clear of danger, starting with a win this weekend.

DOUBLE @ 2.92

YEOVIL Away v Chester @ 2.2 with Ladbrokes.

Chester, a team with 9 goals in their last 10, versus Yeovil, a team with 28 in the same number of games. Thats about the long and the short of it. Yeovil are the free scoring form team of the division, and barring an off day infront of goal, Chester won't cope, just like the tie earlier this season which resulted in a 4-1 win for the table toppers.

FOREIGN PICKS OF THE WEEK

BELENENSES Home v Porto @ 3.50 with StanleyBet

Big value here for me. Head to Head is 2 wins each from the last 4, and Belenenses have notched 7 wins in 10 at home. This is a big week for Porto with their Champions League quarter final in midweek, and the manager will have to work hard to get the players minds fully focused. Porto struggled at home v Guimares(not the best side) last week, and I can see it again here. That price is fantastic.

1860 MUNCHEN +3/4 Away v Duisburg @ 1.93 with PointBet

A dabble with the Asian Handicaps here. Duisburg are not repeating their early season form, and will miss 4 or 5 key players this weekend. Goalkeeper Koch has been integral this season by all accounts, but he, playmaker Grlic, Voss and Van Houdt(very important) will probably all miss this match, and if they do, an improving Munich side has every chance.

This Handicap basically means you get half the stake back if Munchen lose by won, win the bet if they draw or win, and lose if they lose by 2 or more.

Apologies for a few of the short reviews...if anyone's really bothered get in touch and I'll give you the full shebang. Anyhoo, thats all this week, and im a bit more confident in these ones. If not, pass on your frustrations to Dov,and he'll do mean things to me.

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Archive

No of bets - 40
Won - 20
Strike rate - 50%
Staked - 53
Return - 63.38
Profit/Loss +20%

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